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Jakobsen and Garnry: One Europe, two views

The German economy’s shrinking, French GDP has stalled and we already know Italy is in recession. As growth in the Eurozone flatlines, it looks like a case of recovery, what recovery? Saxo TV has asked Steen Jakobsen and Peter Garnry for their thoughts on today’s dire data.

Jakobsen believes it’s a sad day for Europe and says 2014 is a lost year. He says he’s been proved right that Germany could never maintain its growth momentum. Although the numbers aren’t great, Garnry says they’re not alarming. He says Germany’s retraction was down to the weather. The mild winter, he explains, meant that construction investment and spending was moved into the first quarter which affected the second.

Jakobsen though questions this theory pointing to the fact that German factory orders to Europe have already fallen by 10%. China and Asian growth is also slowing which he says is having a big impact. He cites other reasons too including the lack of European reform. Italy he says is not just in recession but depression. And, he proclaims: “Anyone who had a projection for Germany, anyone who had a projection for Europe should be ashamed of themselves.”

But Garnry points out that even if Germany delivers zero growth in the third and fourth quarter GDP across the year will still be up by 1 or 2%. He says there needs to be more data released before people starting fearing the worst. He does though agree that France is a disappointing story. The problem there, he says, is that the country hasn’t carried out reform.

03:36 minutes
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