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Hansen: The cost of conflict in commodities

The crisis around Ukraine has affected commodity prices this week. The possible risk to supplies of gas from Russia and wheat from the Black Sea pushed them higher. The US also helped to raise energy sector prices. Copper and other industrial metals, however, suffered because of further economic sanctions. Saxo’s Ole Hansen says that overall the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by almost 1% which was the best weekly performance in more than two months.

US natural gas and WTI crude helped boost the energy sector. WTI still outperformed Brent crude this week although the latter appeared hardly affected by rising geopolitical tensions. Hansen warns that the problem for Brent is still oversupply, in part because the US doesn’t currently need foreign oil. He also says that overall the market is pointing to lower prices. He suggests that if Brent moves up to USD 104.25 per barrel he’d sell but with a stop above USD 105.

With Russia and Ukraine among the biggest exporters of wheat, the ongoing tensions there have hiked the price. Hansen says wheat has created a floor below 550. Geopolitical risk could trigger some additional short covering from funds still holding near record net short position.

While industrial metals have dimmed this week, precious metals have just about kept their shine. They’ve held above key support levels, helped in part by geopolitical uncertainties. Hansen says gold is range bound at the moment so if it moves down to the lower end 1273 he says that’s a good buy. But he warns that if there’s a move back above 1300 there won’t be much upside above 1310. He suggests looking to sell into rallies above 1305.

03:05 minutes
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