The US dollar has had a choppy few days, but has it really run out of steam after a twelve week rally? Saxo Bank's Head of FX Strategy John Hardy
looks ahead to next week with a detailed talk through some of the likely market movements, heavily influenced by the USD rally, Eurozone woes and UK economic data.
John is looking forward to opportunities in Sterling: "The 0.7875 to 0.7900 level in EURGBP very important technically as a resistance zone. GBP has failed to show much fight against the single currency as it has traded up in this area, with a strong consensus and positioning in the market recently suggesting that the pair should head lower. The outcome will likely be known by mid-week as the UK has the most interesting economic calendar next week, including UK September CPI data on Tuesday and UK September Jobless Claims, August employment and earnings data on Wednesday. We’ll need to see supportive data if the EURGBP shorts aren’t to be challenged with a squeeze that takes the pair well above the 0.7900 level.
The USD was pushed back lower this mid-week after the torrid rally of previous weeks, but had come storming back later in the week. This sets up the question in the week ahead of whether it is ready to head higher still to multi-year highs against the Aussie and the Loonie, with very clear lines on the chart at 0.8643 (support) and 1.1278 (resistance), respectively."
