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Are you betting crude has bottomed out?

Over the past two weeks, WTI Crude has plunged almost 15%. And yet, according to Saxo’s Ole Hansen, hedge funds are betting that the oil price has bottomed out. US data shows that speculators in WTI increased their net-long position by 14% last week. Meanwhile short bets fell by 15%.

Hansen, however, believes that although it may be short-lived, oil prices could fall further. He says there could be a race to the bottom over price because no-one is quite sure what the ‘pain threshold’ for shale producers is. He says crude could fall to USD 60 a barrel.

Hansen notes that one country in particular has been making the most of these falling prices. China is said to be importing up to 90,000 barrels of crude a day as it boosts its strategic reserves. However, he says that China is struggling to make more capacity available in order to hold additional supplies. This, on top of disappointing Chinese trade data, is adding to the risk of additional weakness in the price.

02:37 minutes
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