Hansen: Why oil prices will eventually move back up
It was only six months ago that oil was above USD 110 a barrel. Having fallen almost 40% since then, is this the new normal? Saxo's Ole Hansen doesn’t think so and has several reasons why.
The first is the US shale industry which is reliant on financing, the cost of which has increased considerably. Hansen notes that many companies will be forced to refinance in 2015 which for some could be too painful to bear. He says that could have a negative impact on growth in the US shale industry and slow production, forcing the price higher.
Secondly, as sanctions are already hurting Russia, Hansen warns that they could make it difficult for the country to maintain its current production levels because of their lack of technology. He also says Venezuela is a country to watch because of its deteriorating economic situation. If it defaults, there is likely to be a temporary reduction in exports, he says, again boosting the price.
Following the 2011 Arab Spring, the oil price and geo-political risk were words that went hand in hand as supply became disrupted. That has now all but disappeared and Hansen warns that if it returns, it won't take much to trigger an oil price bounce. However even if Libyan reduction falls again from 800,000 barrels a day to 200,000, he says it won't have a significant effect on the market.
Hansen also warns that lower prices are making new investment less economical for oil companies. Many are already scaling back on capital expenditure for 2015 and even beyond. That too could help stabilise the market, he says.
