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Hansen: My essential commodity trades for Q1
It’s not always true that what goes down must come up… Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen explains that many of the themes that gave way to lower commodity prices in 2014 will continue to pressure the market in 2015.
The fall in oil prices, which has been the prevailing topic of 2014, will likely continue as production outpaces demand, according to Ole. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has exceeded its production targets for the past several months, creating a surplus in oil reserves. Ole states that this excess supply has created a contango in WTI crude, which is rising faster than Brent crude. Given this shift in the market, Ole is looking to sell the front end of the WTI curve within the next six months, and to do the opposite in Brent.
Record-high supply levels are also present in the soybean market, which saw production levels peak last year. South America is expected to increase its production levels into 2015. Conversely, wheat production remains relatively low and is threatened by Russia’s ability to export in the coming months. With soybeans set to underperform relative to wheat, Ole is looking to sell soybeans and buy wheat in a ration trade.
02:55 minutes
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