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According to Joyner, this marks the end of a well-established long-term uptrend for USDCAD.

Looking at the daily chart, he says the pair moved significantly higher in the final months of 2015. The move was largely driven by a combination of falling oil prices and a strengthening US dollar following the Us Federal Reserve’s rate hike, Joyner says.

But at the start of 2016, the USDCAD moved significantly lower, after hitting the highest level seen since April 2003. Firmer oil prices and the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold fire on rate cuts has helped to sustain the downwards momentum into February, Joyner adds.

With the price now stalled just above 1.35 and consolidating in a tight range ever since, Joyner thinks it won’t be long before USDCAD breaks out to the downside from this range, marking the start of a bigger move lower. If this happens, he plans to short the pair, with an initial target of 1.34 and a stop at around 1.357.