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Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen is changing his outlook for Turkey to negative. Even though the Turkish stock market has recently seen a 10% gain, current developments could damage the positive outlook. 

There is political turmoil in Turkey after the prime minister stepped down and the shaky refugee deal with European Union could create a re-emergence of the refugee crisis. According to Jakobsen, the refugee crisis currently poses a greater macro risk than does the Brexit vote. 

Jakobsen is trading USDTRY at 2.92 with a stop at 2.89.