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Markets already eyeing Trump address end of February: Moltke-Leth
Christoffer Moltke-Leth, director of global sales trading at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, looks back at last weeks key event, and gives his outlook of the week ahead.
China's January PPI is up 6.9%, this is the strongest level since 2011. China has become an exporter of inflation, while CPI from the US, Germany and the UK all look pretty healthy and in line with expectations, says Moltke-Leth.
The sterling is under pressure and retail sales fell for the third month in a row. Consumer purchase power erodes as inflation ticks higher. The market now only prices a 16% probability for a UK rate hike this year, says Moltke-Leth.
French political left weakens chances for Macron and strengthens Le Pen. As a consequence the french 10-years government bond yield went up, according to Moltke-Leth.
Looking at the week ahead, the economic diary kicks off with service sector PMI and Q4 PPI data out of New Zealand. Also, Japanese trade data and European consumer data are out later today, while the US markets are closed for President's day, says Moltke-Leth.
The main thing later this week, according to Moltke-Leth, are the FOMC minutes out on Wednesday. We also have a total of Six Fed speeches this week, says Moltke-Leth.
The markets are slowly eyeing and speculating ahead of when Trump addresses Congress on tax code Tuesday 28 February, Moltke-Leth concludes.
03:41 minutes
Tags: china, christoffer moltke-leth, consumer data, cpi, fed, fomc minutes, gbp, germany, inflation, pmi, ppi, rate hike, singapore, tax code, trump, uk, us