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Euro lower on ECB speculation

 

Expectations are for the ECB to announce the introduction of a rate cut this week; however, Saxo Bank’s Nick Beecroft, Chairman, Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited, has a different perspective. Given the recent plunge in inflation Beecroft expects  the ECB will push-back the rate cut until December.

The vast majority of the recent decline in inflation can be attributed to the rate cut, while factors such as seasonality minimally impacted inflation. Beecroft says indicators such as a weaker dollar combined with delayed tapering and a stronger Euro will lead to more positive conditions for a deposit rate cut in December.

The Italian Finance Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni has called on the ECB to take take bolder action against the threat of stagnating prices and to consider the stronger euro's debilitating economic effects in its policy-making decisions.

The Euro has increased 2.8 percent against the dollar since September the 18th when the US decided to delay tapering.

The ECB’s rate cut stands to be the most damaging influence against the Euro. A LTRO would be much less impactful according to Beecroft.

01:43 minutes
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