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How to pick the best crops in commodities
The US Department of Agriculture releases two reports which are among the biggest market movers of the year. The Quarterly Stock report and the Prospective Planting report give traders an assessment of current stock levels, plus eighty thousand farmers respond to the survey of planting intentions.
The reports reflect volatility within the market as well as the wide spreads. This winter we’ve seen extreme weather move prices to five year highs, for example Arabica coffee going up by around forty percent due to drought in Brazil, while wheat is now at a five year low.
Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy has been looking through the reports and has this assessment:
Prospective planting expectations after surveying eighty thousand farmers. Also called the annual battle for acreage:
Soybeans: 81.1 million acres +5.9% range estimate: 78.5 – 83.6
Corn: 92.8 million acres -2.7% range estimate: 90.5 – 94
Wheat: 56.3 million acres range estimate: 54.8 – 57.7
High soybean prices => higher acreage at the expense of corn
Quarterly stock report:
Soybeans: 990 million bushels lowest since 2004 range est. 955 – 1087
Corn: 7 billion bushels highest since 2010 range est. 6.86 – 7.54
02:14 minutes
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