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Kit Juckes: Watch out for a EURUSD move in September

Euro dollar seems to be somewhat stuck around the 1.35 level, so the question for FX traders is when the pair will finally budge. For Kit Juckes, Senior FX & Fixed Income Adviser at The ECU Group, and he's also head of FX Strategy at Société Générale, a move is dependent on a change in the outlook for a US rate hike.

Juckes thinks we will see an increase in productivity and wage growth around September, this will in turn bring on the prospect of higher rates which will bring euro dollar lower. Last week, Fed officials released forecasts indicating that interest rates would rise from faster than previously expected next year. But during a news conference on 18 June, Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasised the Federal Open Market Committee’s view that rates are likely to stay low “for a considerable time.”

Meanwhile, the dollar hasn’t made the comeback that many analysts predicted earlier this year. Kit explains that those analysts were jumping the gun and that instead of being bullish this year, they should have planned to be so going into 2015 instead.

Kit also warns investors need to be aware of the risks attached to trading the dollar because of geo-political risks. What’s more, they should not assume that an automatic rise will happen.

02:39 minutes
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