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Macro Focus Video: Constructive Jackson Hole solutions or more of the same?
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Last year Ben Bernanke took the world by surprise by announcing a second round of Quantitative Easing at this meeting in a mountainside retreat, and with growing concerns about a possible double dip recession the precedent is really set for something big this time too. According to Steen, Bernanke’s main focus is to avoid a “Japanisation” – a deflationary environment with low growth and low interest rates through more of the same monetary policy i.e. a Quantitative Easing 3 or Operation Twist, or maybe even both.
It’s clear from recent data that the U.S. economy needs a helping hand and some form of intervention in the fourth quarter. Despite criticism that QE2 was a failure Steen expects Bernanke, whose reputation is as such on the line, to continue to defend the easing concept along the lines of: without it the situation would have probably been much worse.
Ben Bernanke’s press conference will be followed by one from Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank President. He is expected to also defend the bank’s actions in raising rates despite criticism that these have been out of sync with the economic reality of Europe. The hope, according to Steen, is that Trichet can now set some real direction in terms of starting a constructive process to solving the Eurozone’s economic woes. Such a process should hopefully lead the Eurozone towards more solidarity and consolidation and replace the fruitless political battles which to an extent have achieved the exact opposite.
For more comments by Steen Jakobsen see his blog Steen's Chronicle on TradingFloor.com .