Outrageous Predictions
Outrageous Prediction: Hong Kong unpegs HKD from USD - re-pegs to RMB
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China deepens its political commitment to turn away from its managed peg
to the US dollar. A big step in this direction is taken as Hong Kong
moves to unpeg the Hong Kong dollar from the US dollar and repeg it to
the Chinese renminbi. Other Asian countries show signs of wanting to
follow suit in recognition of Asia’s shifting trade patterns and as
national policies of accumulating endless USD reserves begin to erode.
China also takes steps to increase RMB convertibility to grab a larger
share of global trade – part of its large ambition to hold more sway
over developing and frontier economies and commodity producers. This
starts a process of wresting some of the advantages of holding a major
reserve currency away from the US currency. RMB volatility increases as
China loosens its grip on the currency’s movements, and Hong Kong
quickly grows to become a major world currency trading centre and the
most important centre for trading the RMB.
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