TradingFloor.com Insights
Q2 Insights: USD rally to extend
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The macro environment offers a win-win set-up for the USD from here, says John J. Hardy, Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank, in TradingFloor.com's Q2 Insights. In the optimistic scenario, the USD rises because the US recovery continues to take hold in coming months, further encouraging anticipation that the Fed will begin to unwind some of its accommodation as early as later this year, possibly by reducing the rate of its mortgage-backed securities and US treasury buying, established at USD 85 billion per month last December. Fed chief Ben Bernanke himself has spelled out this scenario. Thus, the Fed would be the first super-major central bank to begin to unwind accommodation. Other supports for the USD on this front are the incredible comeback in energy production, the ongoing reduction of the current account deficit from this and from the reshoring of some production. A potential dark horse support for the USD would be the return of US foreign corporate wealth if the government launches a new Homeland Investment Act profit repatriation scheme.