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The surprising leaders in global growth
“Manufacturers will drive global growth in 2014”. So says Saxo Bank’s Head of Macro Mads Koefoed, as Saxo’s global PMI manufacturing tracker reaches the highest level in more than a year. It currently stands at 54.2 in December.
He says that it’s particularly interesting that the western economies such as the Eurozone and the US are the ones at the forefront of this trend. The euro area has improved noticeably in recent months from 48 in mid-2013 to 52.7 six months later. Anything over 50 indicates expansion. On the other hand, China has been stuck in the same range for more than a year and doesn't seem able to get out of the 50 to 51 range, according to Mads.
Overall, Mads believes this means global growth will be higher this year, which is welcoming news for investors with a stake in equities. That view is not shared by Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen; he believes that 2014 is about moving risk from equities to bonds due to a significant if not dramatic slowdown in global growth.
Read more about Steen’s predictions here:
http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/deflation-risk-raises-opportunity-german-bunds-667990888
01:46 minutes
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