The recent rise we've seen across many asset classes of late is just a classic bear-market rally. That's according to the Chief Investment Officer of the ECU Group, Michael Petley who says the improvements we've seen in many emerging market currencies, equity markets and commodities are little more than an illusion.

Growth in the States is particularly worrisome, says Petley. The ECU Group's model suggests American GDP could be falling to less that 1.5% in the fourth quarter. He questions where global demand is coming from when inventories continue to spike higher. He outlines his trading themes and tells us why he thinks cash is the most valuable resource in these difficult times.